Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.25↗BTTSYes 1.50↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.20↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-1Result status: won
Club Friendlies · Wednesday, 5 August 2026
AC Milan v Inter Milan Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-112.9%
Expected goals1.41 – 1.59AC Milan / Inter Milan
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.9%
#21-28.9%
#32-17.9%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.3% | 12.9% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate12.9%
Model fair odds7.77
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-2.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-16.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects AC Milan versus Inter Milan to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 1-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy