Uzbekistan Professional Football League · Wednesday, 5 August 2026

Bukhoro Davlat Universiteti v Shurtan Guzor Correct Score Prediction

Bukhoro Davlat Universiteti

1-1

Shurtan Guzor

Kick-off: 14:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.60BTTSYes 1.62O/UUnder 2.5 2.00FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score2-4Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-111.7%

Expected goals1.17 – 1.70Bukhoro Davlat Universiteti / Shurtan Guzor

Most likely scorelines

#11-111.7%

#21-29.6%

#30-19.3%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	9.3%	8.2%	4.6%	2.0%
1	6.3%	11.7%	9.6%	5.4%	2.3%
2	3.9%	6.6%	5.6%	3.2%	1.3%
3	1.5%	2.6%	2.2%	1.2%	0.5%
4	0.4%	0.7%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate11.7%

Model fair odds8.54

Recorded CS odds6.50

Bookmaker implied15.4%

Model-market gap-3.7 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-23.9%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published4 Aug 2026 · 19:13 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home3.50View odds

Draw3.60View odds

Away1.80View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.62View odds

Both teams to score — No2.10View odds

Over 2.51.67View odds

Under 2.52.00View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Bukhoro Davlat Universiteti versus Shurtan Guzor to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 2-4, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy