Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds9.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.70↗BTTSYes 1.30↗O/UUnder 2.5 3.30↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score3-0Result status: lost
Icelandic Urvalsdeild · Wednesday, 5 August 2026
Keflavik v KA Akureyri Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-19.9%
Expected goals1.97 – 1.71Keflavik / KA Akureyri
Most likely scorelines
#11-19.9%
#22-18.4%
#31-27.3%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 3.6% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 4.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.9%
Model fair odds10.09
Recorded CS odds9.00
Bookmaker implied11.1%
Model-market gap-1.2 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-10.8%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Keflavik versus KA Akureyri to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 3-0, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy