Prediction summary
Correct score1-3
Correct score odds12.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultPSG win 1.67↗BTTSYes 1.50↗O/UOver 2.5 1.50↗FT goals4 goals View odds↗Winning marginPSG by 2 goals View odds↗
Final score3-0Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-36.4%
Expected goals1.24 – 1.97Mallorca / PSG
Most likely scorelines
#11-110.3%
#21-29.7%
#30-27.9%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| 2 | 3.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate6.4%
Model fair odds15.71
Recorded CS odds12.00
Bookmaker implied8.3%
Model-market gap-2.0 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-23.6%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-3
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Mallorca versus PSG to finish 1-3. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 3-0, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 1-3
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy