UEFA Europa League Qualification · Thursday, 6 August 2026

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Rangers Correct Score Prediction

Jagiellonia Bialystok

1-1

Rangers

Kick-off: 16:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.10BTTSYes 1.75O/UUnder 2.5 1.80FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score2-1Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-113.8%

Expected goals1.21 – 1.36Jagiellonia Bialystok / Rangers

Most likely scorelines

#11-113.8%

#20-19.2%

#30-08.8%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.8%	9.2%	7.1%	3.2%	1.1%
1	8.1%	13.8%	8.6%	3.9%	1.3%
2	5.6%	7.6%	5.2%	2.4%	0.8%
3	2.3%	3.1%	2.1%	1.0%	0.3%
4	0.7%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate13.8%

Model fair odds7.27

Recorded CS odds6.00

Bookmaker implied16.7%

Model-market gap-2.9 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-17.4%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published5 Aug 2026 · 18:35 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.80View odds

Draw3.10View odds

Away2.30View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.75View odds

Both teams to score — No1.95View odds

Over 2.51.91View odds

Under 2.51.80View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Jagiellonia Bialystok versus Rangers to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 2-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy