Prediction summary
Correct score0-5
Correct score odds36.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultKaaPo win 1.57↗BTTSNo 2.90↗O/UOver 2.5 1.25↗FT goals5 goals View odds↗Winning marginKaaPo by 5 goals View odds↗
Final score2-1Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score0-51.3%
Expected goals1.43 – 2.34Jyty / KaaPo
Most likely scorelines
#11-29.0%
#21-18.2%
#31-37.0%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| 1 | 2.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.1% |
| 2 | 2.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| 3 | 1.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate1.3%
Model fair odds74.24
Recorded CS odds36.00
Bookmaker implied2.8%
Model-market gap-1.4 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-51.5%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 0-5
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Jyty versus KaaPo to finish 0-5. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 2-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 0-5
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy