Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds8.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultMonaco win 1.75↗BTTSYes 1.75↗O/UOver 2.5 1.85↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginMonaco by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score1-0Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-19.6%
Expected goals1.65 – 1.02Monaco / Getafe
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.8%
#21-010.2%
#32-19.6%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 12.8% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.6%
Model fair odds10.39
Recorded CS odds8.00
Bookmaker implied12.5%
Model-market gap-2.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-23.0%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Monaco versus Getafe to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 1-0, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy