Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 3.2% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| 2 | 3.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-3
The model projects Aston Villa versus Bayern Munich to finish 1-3. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 1-2, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
