France Ligue National · Friday, 7 August 2026

Bastia v Le Puy Correct Score Prediction

Bastia

1-0

Le Puy

Kick-off: 18:45 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-0

Correct score odds6.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultBastia win 2.05BTTSNo 1.85O/UUnder 2.5 1.67FT goals1 goal View oddsWinning marginBastia by 1 goal View odds

Final score0-2Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-010.0%

Expected goals1.41 – 1.06Bastia / Le Puy

Most likely scorelines

#11-114.6%

#20-010.4%

#31-010.0%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.4%	7.0%	4.7%	1.7%	0.4%
1	10.0%	14.6%	6.7%	2.4%	0.6%
2	8.4%	8.9%	4.7%	1.7%	0.4%
3	4.0%	4.2%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.4%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate10.0%

Model fair odds10.00

Recorded CS odds6.00

Bookmaker implied16.7%

Model-market gap-6.7 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-40.0%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published6 Aug 2026 · 19:20 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.05View odds

Draw2.88View odds

Away3.40View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.83View odds

Both teams to score — No1.85View odds

Over 2.52.05View odds

Under 2.51.67View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Bastia versus Le Puy to finish 1-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 0-2, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 1-0

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy