Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.00↗BTTSYes 1.60↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.95↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-2Result status: lost
Club Friendlies · Friday, 7 August 2026
Fulham v Crystal Palace Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-114.0%
Expected goals1.47 – 1.32Fulham / Crystal Palace
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.0%
#22-18.7%
#30-08.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 14.0% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate14.0%
Model fair odds7.16
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-2.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-16.1%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Fulham versus Crystal Palace to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 1-2, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy