Prediction summary
Correct score2-2
Correct score odds12.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.10↗BTTSYes 1.67↗O/UOver 2.5 1.85↗FT goals4 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score2-1Result status: lost
Uzbekistan Super League · Friday, 7 August 2026
Lokomotiv Tashkent v Dinamo Samarqand Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-25.4%
Expected goals1.43 – 1.23Lokomotiv Tashkent / Dinamo Samarqand
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.5%
#22-18.8%
#31-08.7%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 13.5% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate5.4%
Model fair odds18.45
Recorded CS odds12.00
Bookmaker implied8.3%
Model-market gap-2.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-35.0%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Lokomotiv Tashkent versus Dinamo Samarqand to finish 2-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 2-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 2-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy