Brazilian Serie A · Sunday, 9 August 2026

Bahia v Vasco da Gama Correct Score Prediction

Bahia

2-1

Vasco da Gama

Kick-off: 19:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score2-1

Correct score odds8.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultBahia win 1.95BTTSYes 1.70O/UOver 2.5 1.85FT goals3 goals View oddsWinning marginBahia by 1 goal View odds

Final score0-0Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score2-19.4%

Expected goals1.56 – 1.11Bahia / Vasco da Gama

Most likely scorelines

#11-113.4%

#21-09.4%

#32-19.4%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	6.3%	4.3%	1.6%	0.4%
1	9.4%	13.4%	6.6%	2.5%	0.7%
2	8.4%	9.4%	5.2%	1.9%	0.5%
3	4.4%	4.9%	2.7%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.7%	1.9%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate9.4%

Model fair odds10.68

Recorded CS odds8.00

Bookmaker implied12.5%

Model-market gap-3.1 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-25.1%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published8 Aug 2026 · 16:37 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.95View odds

Draw3.30View odds

Away3.50View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.70View odds

Both teams to score — No2.05View odds

Over 2.51.85View odds

Under 2.51.85View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Bahia versus Vasco da Gama to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 0-0, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 2-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy