Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds9.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 4.80↗BTTSYes 1.65↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.62↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-5Result status: lost
William Hill Scottish Premiership · Sunday, 9 August 2026
Kilmarnock v Celtic Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-18.6%
Expected goals0.98 – 2.34Kilmarnock / Celtic
Most likely scorelines
#10-29.9%
#21-29.7%
#31-18.6%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 4.5% |
| 1 | 3.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 4.4% |
| 2 | 1.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.6%
Model fair odds11.59
Recorded CS odds9.00
Bookmaker implied11.1%
Model-market gap-2.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-22.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Kilmarnock versus Celtic to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 1-5, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy