Swedish Superettan · Sunday, 9 August 2026

Varberg v Sandvikens IF Correct Score Prediction

Varberg

2-1

Sandvikens IF

Kick-off: 13:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score2-1

Correct score odds7.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultVarberg win 1.80BTTSYes 1.57O/UOver 2.5 1.57FT goals3 goals View oddsWinning marginVarberg by 1 goal View odds

Final score0-1Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score2-19.6%

Expected goals1.80 – 1.22Varberg / Sandvikens IF

Most likely scorelines

#11-111.8%

#22-19.6%

#32-07.9%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	4.9%	3.6%	1.5%	0.4%
1	7.8%	11.8%	6.5%	2.7%	0.8%
2	7.9%	9.6%	5.9%	2.4%	0.7%
3	4.7%	5.8%	3.5%	1.4%	0.4%
4	2.1%	2.6%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate9.6%

Model fair odds10.37

Recorded CS odds7.50

Bookmaker implied13.3%

Model-market gap-3.7 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-27.7%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published8 Aug 2026 · 16:37 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.80View odds

Draw3.50View odds

Away3.60View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.57View odds

Both teams to score — No2.25View odds

Over 2.51.57View odds

Under 2.52.25View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Varberg versus Sandvikens IF to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 0-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 2-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy