Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds7.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultZwolle win 5.50↗BTTSYes 1.55↗O/UOver 2.5 1.44↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginZwolle by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score0-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-14.8%
Expected goals1.07 – 2.20Zwolle / Ajax
Most likely scorelines
#11-110.1%
#21-29.8%
#30-29.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 3.7% |
| 1 | 2.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 4.0% |
| 2 | 2.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate4.8%
Model fair odds20.91
Recorded CS odds7.50
Bookmaker implied13.3%
Model-market gap-8.6 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-64.1%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Zwolle versus Ajax to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 0-2, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy