Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds7.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.70↗BTTSYes 1.44↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.62↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score0-1Result status: lost
Dutch Eerste Divisie · Monday, 10 August 2026
Jong AZ v FC Eindhoven Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-111.0%
Expected goals1.79 – 1.50Jong AZ / FC Eindhoven
Most likely scorelines
#11-111.0%
#22-19.0%
#31-27.5%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 6.0% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate11.0%
Model fair odds9.07
Recorded CS odds7.50
Bookmaker implied13.3%
Model-market gap-2.3 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-17.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Jong AZ versus FC Eindhoven to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 0-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy