Prediction summary
Correct score3-1
Correct score odds9.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultSirius win 1.30↗BTTSYes 1.60↗O/UOver 2.5 1.36↗FT goals4 goals View odds↗Winning marginSirius by 2 goals View odds↗
Final score2-2Result status: lost
Swedish Allsvenskan · Monday, 10 August 2026
Sirius v Brommapojkarna Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score3-17.9%
Expected goals2.54 – 0.97Sirius / Brommapojkarna
Most likely scorelines
#12-09.6%
#22-19.4%
#31-18.5%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 9.6% | 9.4% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 8.2% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 5.2% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate7.9%
Model fair odds12.63
Recorded CS odds9.50
Bookmaker implied10.5%
Model-market gap-2.6 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-24.8%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 3-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Sirius versus Brommapojkarna to finish 3-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 2-2, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 3-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy