Scottish League Challenge Cup · Tuesday, 11 August 2026

Alloa v Stranraer Correct Score Prediction

Alloa

2-1

Stranraer

Kick-off: 18:45 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score2-1

Correct score odds7.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultAlloa win 1.65BTTSYes 1.67O/UOver 2.5 View oddsFT goals3 goals View oddsWinning marginAlloa by 1 goal View odds

Final score2-1Result status: won

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score2-19.9%

Expected goals1.81 – 1.02Alloa / Stranraer

Most likely scorelines

#11-112.5%

#22-19.9%

#32-09.7%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5%	4.4%	3.1%	1.0%	0.3%
1	9.1%	12.5%	5.5%	1.9%	0.5%
2	9.7%	9.9%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%
3	5.8%	6.0%	3.0%	1.0%	0.3%
4	2.7%	2.7%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate9.9%

Model fair odds10.14

Recorded CS odds7.50

Bookmaker implied13.3%

Model-market gap-3.5 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-26.0%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published10 Aug 2026 · 18:35 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.65View odds

Draw3.40View odds

Away4.50View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.67View odds

Both teams to score — No2.05View odds

Over 2.5—View odds

Under 2.5—View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Alloa versus Stranraer to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 2-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 2-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy