UEFA Champions League Qualification · Tuesday, 11 August 2026

Kairat v Levski Sofia Correct Score Prediction

Kairat

1-0

Levski Sofia

Kick-off: 15:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-0

Correct score odds7.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultKairat win 2.40BTTSNo 1.80O/UUnder 2.5 1.62FT goals1 goal View oddsWinning marginKairat by 1 goal View odds

Final score0-1Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-010.8%

Expected goals1.22 – 1.15Kairat / Levski Sofia

Most likely scorelines

#11-113.7%

#21-010.8%

#30-110.1%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.9%	10.1%	6.2%	2.4%	0.7%
1	10.8%	13.7%	7.5%	2.9%	0.8%
2	7.0%	8.0%	4.6%	1.8%	0.5%
3	2.8%	3.3%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.9%	1.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate10.8%

Model fair odds9.30

Recorded CS odds7.00

Bookmaker implied14.3%

Model-market gap-3.5 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-24.7%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published10 Aug 2026 · 18:35 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.40View odds

Draw3.10View odds

Away2.70View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.91View odds

Both teams to score — No1.80View odds

Over 2.52.20View odds

Under 2.51.62View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Kairat versus Levski Sofia to finish 1-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 0-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 1-0

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy