Prediction summary
Correct score2-0
Correct score odds7.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultLyon win 1.44↗BTTSNo 2.00↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.15↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginLyon by 2 goals View odds↗
Final score3-0Result status: lost
UEFA Champions League Qualification · Tuesday, 11 August 2026
Lyon v Sparta Prague Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-010.6%
Expected goals2.04 – 0.94Lyon / Sparta Prague
Most likely scorelines
#12-010.6%
#21-010.2%
#31-110.0%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 10.0% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 10.6% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 7.2% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate10.6%
Model fair odds9.42
Recorded CS odds7.50
Bookmaker implied13.3%
Model-market gap-2.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-20.4%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Lyon versus Sparta Prague to finish 2-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 3-0, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 2-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy