South African Premier League · Wednesday, 12 August 2026

Durban City v Golden Arrows Correct Score Prediction

Durban City

1-1

Golden Arrows

Kick-off: 17:30 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds5.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 2.62BTTSYes 2.10O/UUnder 2.5 1.40FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score0-0Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-115.9%

Expected goals1.06 – 0.99Durban City / Golden Arrows

Most likely scorelines

#11-115.9%

#20-015.2%

#31-011.3%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	15.2%	10.3%	6.3%	2.1%	0.5%
1	11.3%	15.9%	6.7%	2.2%	0.5%
2	7.3%	7.2%	3.5%	1.2%	0.3%
3	2.6%	2.5%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.7%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate15.9%

Model fair odds6.29

Recorded CS odds5.50

Bookmaker implied18.2%

Model-market gap-2.3 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-12.6%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published11 Aug 2026 · 18:31 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.62View odds

Draw2.62View odds

Away3.00View odds

Both teams to score — Yes2.10View odds

Both teams to score — No1.67View odds

Over 2.52.75View odds

Under 2.51.40View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Durban City versus Golden Arrows to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 0-0, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy