Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.70↗BTTSYes 1.75↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.85↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score2-1Result status: lost
UEFA Super Cup · Wednesday, 12 August 2026
PSG v Aston Villa Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-112.1%
Expected goals1.69 – 0.99PSG / Aston Villa
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.1%
#21-011.0%
#32-09.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 12.1% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.8% | 9.7% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate12.1%
Model fair odds8.24
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-2.2 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-15.1%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects PSG versus Aston Villa to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 2-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy