Prediction summary
Correct score2-2
Correct score odds10.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.60↗BTTSYes 1.40↗O/UOver 2.5 1.40↗FT goals4 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-4Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-26.5%
Expected goals1.40 – 1.95Grotta / Njardvik
Most likely scorelines
#11-111.1%
#21-29.3%
#32-16.7%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| 2 | 3.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate6.5%
Model fair odds15.27
Recorded CS odds10.00
Bookmaker implied10.0%
Model-market gap-3.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-34.5%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Grotta versus Njardvik to finish 2-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 1-4, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 2-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy