UEFA Europa Conference League Qualification · Thursday, 13 August 2026

Rigas FS v FK Jablonec Correct Score Prediction

Rigas FS

2-2

FK Jablonec

Kick-off: 16:30 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score2-2

Correct score odds15.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.40BTTSYes 1.85O/UOver 2.5 2.05FT goals4 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score1-2Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score2-24.7%

Expected goals1.44 – 1.04Rigas FS / FK Jablonec

Most likely scorelines

#11-112.9%

#21-011.8%

#32-19.0%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.8%	8.4%	4.5%	1.6%	0.4%
1	11.8%	12.9%	6.5%	2.2%	0.6%
2	8.7%	9.0%	4.7%	1.6%	0.4%
3	4.2%	4.3%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.5%	1.6%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate4.7%

Model fair odds21.43

Recorded CS odds15.00

Bookmaker implied6.7%

Model-market gap-2.0 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-30.0%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published12 Aug 2026 · 19:09 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-2

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.00View odds

Draw3.40View odds

Away3.40View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.85View odds

Both teams to score — No1.85View odds

Over 2.52.05View odds

Under 2.51.67View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Rigas FS versus FK Jablonec to finish 2-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 1-2, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 2-2

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy