Prediction summary
Correct score0-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultMetz win 2.00↗BTTSNo 2.00↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.75↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginMetz by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score0-0Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score0-110.0%
Expected goals1.11 – 1.50Grenoble / Metz
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.3%
#20-110.0%
#31-29.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate10.0%
Model fair odds10.01
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-5.4 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-35.1%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 0-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Grenoble versus Metz to finish 0-1. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 0-0, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 0-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy