Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 4.00↗BTTSYes 1.75↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.05↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score4-1Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-110.8%
Expected goals1.90 – 0.97LASK Linz / Ried
Most likely scorelines
#11-110.8%
#21-010.5%
#32-010.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.5% | 10.8% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.2% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate10.8%
Model fair odds9.27
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-3.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-24.5%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects LASK Linz versus Ried to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 4-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy