Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 11.7% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 10.2% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 6.7% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-0
The model projects Sporting CP versus Guimaraes to finish 2-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 3-2, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
