Prediction summary
Correct score2-0
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultWolves win 1.50↗BTTSNo 1.85↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.95↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginWolves by 2 goals View odds↗
Final score2-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-011.0%
Expected goals1.89 – 0.89Wolves / Blackburn
Most likely scorelines
#11-011.3%
#22-011.0%
#31-110.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 11.3% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11.0% | 9.9% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 7.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate11.0%
Model fair odds9.06
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-3.2 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-22.7%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Wolves versus Blackburn to finish 2-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 2-2, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 2-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy