Prediction summary
Correct score0-1
Correct score odds5.80
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultTigre win 2.50↗BTTSNo 1.62↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.36↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginTigre by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score0-0Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score0-112.5%
Expected goals0.96 – 1.07Aldosivi / Tigre
Most likely scorelines
#11-115.1%
#20-014.8%
#30-112.5%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 15.1% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate12.5%
Model fair odds8.02
Recorded CS odds5.80
Bookmaker implied17.2%
Model-market gap-4.8 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-27.7%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 0-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Aldosivi versus Tigre to finish 0-1. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 0-0, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 0-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy