English National League · Saturday, 15 August 2026

Barrow v Hornchurch Correct Score Prediction

Barrow

2-0

Hornchurch

Kick-off: 14:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score2-0

Correct score odds7.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultBarrow win 1.62BTTSNo 1.83O/UUnder 2.5 1.85FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginBarrow by 2 goals View odds

Final score1-2Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score2-010.9%

Expected goals1.74 – 0.90Barrow / Hornchurch

Most likely scorelines

#11-012.1%

#21-111.5%

#32-010.9%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5%	6.1%	2.9%	0.9%	0.2%
1	12.1%	11.5%	5.0%	1.5%	0.3%
2	10.9%	9.7%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%
3	6.3%	5.6%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.7%	2.4%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate10.9%

Model fair odds9.22

Recorded CS odds7.00

Bookmaker implied14.3%

Model-market gap-3.4 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-24.0%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published14 Aug 2026 · 20:00 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-0

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.62View odds

Draw3.75View odds

Away4.80View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.91View odds

Both teams to score — No1.83View odds

Over 2.51.85View odds

Under 2.51.85View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Barrow versus Hornchurch to finish 2-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 1-2, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 2-0

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy