Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.10↗BTTSYes 1.73↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.75↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score2-1Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-114.2%
Expected goals1.43 – 1.15Bolton / Preston
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.2%
#20-09.3%
#31-09.1%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 14.2% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.7% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate14.2%
Model fair odds7.04
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-2.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-14.8%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Bolton versus Preston to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 2-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy