Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds9.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDover win 2.40↗BTTSYes 1.50↗O/UOver 2.5 1.62↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginDover by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score5-3Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-18.6%
Expected goals1.53 – 1.47Dover / Slough
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.8%
#22-18.6%
#31-28.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 12.8% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.8% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.6%
Model fair odds11.68
Recorded CS odds9.00
Bookmaker implied11.1%
Model-market gap-2.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-22.9%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Dover versus Slough to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 5-3, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy