Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds8.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultEsbjerg win 1.95↗BTTSYes 1.60↗O/UOver 2.5 1.67↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginEsbjerg by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score1-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-19.4%
Expected goals1.65 – 1.24Esbjerg / Hobro
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.4%
#22-19.4%
#31-08.1%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.1% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.4%
Model fair odds10.65
Recorded CS odds8.00
Bookmaker implied12.5%
Model-market gap-3.1 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-24.9%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Esbjerg versus Hobro to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 1-2, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy