Brazilian Serie A · Saturday, 15 August 2026

Fluminense v Palmeiras Correct Score Prediction

Fluminense

1-1

Palmeiras

Kick-off: 19:30 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds5.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 2.90BTTSYes 1.91O/UUnder 2.5 1.60FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score3-2Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-114.6%

Expected goals1.13 – 1.21Fluminense / Palmeiras

Most likely scorelines

#11-114.6%

#20-011.1%

#30-110.2%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.1%	10.2%	7.0%	2.8%	0.9%
1	9.4%	14.6%	8.0%	3.2%	1.0%
2	6.1%	7.4%	4.5%	1.8%	0.6%
3	2.3%	2.8%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.7%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate14.6%

Model fair odds6.83

Recorded CS odds5.50

Bookmaker implied18.2%

Model-market gap-3.5 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-19.5%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published14 Aug 2026 · 20:00 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.75View odds

Draw2.90View odds

Away2.50View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.91View odds

Both teams to score — No1.80View odds

Over 2.52.25View odds

Under 2.51.60View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Fluminense versus Palmeiras to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 3-2, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy