Prediction summary
Correct score1-0
Correct score odds5.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultMitre win 1.85↗BTTSNo 1.62↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.44↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginMitre by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score1-1Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-014.4%
Expected goals1.39 – 0.77Mitre / Guemes
Most likely scorelines
#11-014.4%
#21-114.0%
#30-013.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 14.4% | 14.0% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11.1% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate14.4%
Model fair odds6.92
Recorded CS odds5.00
Bookmaker implied20.0%
Model-market gap-5.6 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-27.8%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Mitre versus Guemes to finish 1-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 1-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 1-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy