Prediction summary
Correct score1-0
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultOsijek win 2.00↗BTTSNo 1.95↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.80↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginOsijek by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score1-0Result status: won
Croatian 1.HNL · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Osijek v NK Lokomotiva Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-010.0%
Expected goals1.52 – 1.10Osijek / NK Lokomotiva
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.3%
#21-010.0%
#32-19.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate10.0%
Model fair odds9.96
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-4.2 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-29.7%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Osijek versus NK Lokomotiva to finish 1-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 1-0, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 1-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy