Spanish La Liga Primera · Saturday, 15 August 2026

Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano Correct Score Prediction

Sevilla

1-1

Rayo Vallecano

Kick-off: 19:30 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds5.80

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.10BTTSYes 1.95O/UUnder 2.5 1.62FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score2-1Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-114.1%

Expected goals1.30 – 1.06Sevilla / Rayo Vallecano

Most likely scorelines

#11-114.1%

#21-011.3%

#30-010.5%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.5%	9.0%	5.3%	1.9%	0.5%
1	11.3%	14.1%	6.9%	2.4%	0.6%
2	8.0%	8.4%	4.5%	1.6%	0.4%
3	3.5%	3.7%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.1%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate14.1%

Model fair odds7.11

Recorded CS odds5.80

Bookmaker implied17.2%

Model-market gap-3.2 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-18.4%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published14 Aug 2026 · 20:00 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.25View odds

Draw3.10View odds

Away3.20View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.95View odds

Both teams to score — No1.80View odds

Over 2.52.25View odds

Under 2.51.62View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Sevilla versus Rayo Vallecano to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 2-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy