Prediction summary
Correct score1-0
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultStoke win 2.38↗BTTSNo 1.95↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.67↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginStoke by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score1-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-09.8%
Expected goals1.30 – 1.15Stoke / Swansea
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.3%
#20-010.0%
#31-09.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 14.3% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.3% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.8%
Model fair odds10.17
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-4.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-31.2%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Stoke versus Swansea to finish 1-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 1-2, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 1-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy