Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.30↗BTTSYes 1.62↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.00↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score2-2Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-113.2%
Expected goals1.29 – 1.54Burnley / West Ham
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.2%
#21-29.0%
#30-17.7%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 6.2% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 4.9% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate13.2%
Model fair odds7.59
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-2.2 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-14.4%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Burnley versus West Ham to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 2-2, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy