Brazilian Serie A · Sunday, 16 August 2026

Chapecoense v Bahia Correct Score Prediction

Chapecoense

1-1

Bahia

Kick-off: 14:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.25BTTSYes 1.70O/UUnder 2.5 1.85FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score3-3Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-113.5%

Expected goals1.12 – 1.55Chapecoense / Bahia

Most likely scorelines

#11-113.5%

#21-29.3%

#30-19.2%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.4%	9.2%	8.3%	4.3%	1.7%
1	6.3%	13.5%	9.3%	4.8%	1.9%
2	4.3%	6.7%	5.2%	2.7%	1.0%
3	1.6%	2.5%	2.0%	1.0%	0.4%
4	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate13.5%

Model fair odds7.42

Recorded CS odds6.00

Bookmaker implied16.7%

Model-market gap-3.2 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-19.1%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published15 Aug 2026 · 20:58 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home3.50View odds

Draw3.25View odds

Away2.00View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.70View odds

Both teams to score — No2.05View odds

Over 2.51.85View odds

Under 2.51.85View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Chapecoense versus Bahia to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 3-3, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy