English Championship · Sunday, 16 August 2026

Watford v Southampton Correct Score Prediction

Watford

1-1

Southampton

Kick-off: 12:30 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.30BTTSYes 1.62O/UUnder 2.5 1.95FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score2-1Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-113.3%

Expected goals1.21 – 1.58Watford / Southampton

Most likely scorelines

#11-113.3%

#21-29.3%

#30-18.2%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	8.2%	7.7%	4.0%	1.6%
1	5.9%	13.3%	9.3%	4.9%	1.9%
2	4.5%	7.1%	5.6%	2.9%	1.2%
3	1.8%	2.9%	2.3%	1.2%	0.5%
4	0.5%	0.9%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate13.3%

Model fair odds7.50

Recorded CS odds6.00

Bookmaker implied16.7%

Model-market gap-3.3 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-20.0%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published15 Aug 2026 · 20:58 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home3.30View odds

Draw3.30View odds

Away2.05View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.62View odds

Both teams to score — No2.20View odds

Over 2.51.75View odds

Under 2.51.95View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Watford versus Southampton to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. The recorded final score is 2-1, so the archived prediction can be checked against the outcome.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy