Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 2.70↗BTTSYes 2.45↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.30↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-0Result status: lost
Argentinian Primera Nacional · Monday, 17 August 2026
All Boys v Nueva Chicago Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-114.4%
Expected goals1.08 – 0.79All Boys / Nueva Chicago
Most likely scorelines
#10-016.6%
#21-015.4%
#31-114.4%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6% | 10.9% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 15.4% | 14.4% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 9.0% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate14.4%
Model fair odds6.95
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-2.3 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-13.7%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Both sides are producing low-event matches, the reverse fixture finished goalless, and recent defensive trends strongly outweigh their limited attacking output.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy