Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds11.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 6.00↗BTTSYes 2.15↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.25↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score0-7Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-17.1%
Expected goals0.65 – 2.40Casa Pia / Benfica
Most likely scorelines
#10-213.6%
#20-111.6%
#30-310.9%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 6.6% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 4.3% |
| 2 | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate7.1%
Model fair odds14.16
Recorded CS odds11.00
Bookmaker implied9.1%
Model-market gap-2.0 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-22.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
European congestion and two recent H2H draws suggest Benfica may control possession without dominating, while Casa Pia retain enough threat to score once.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy