Prediction summary
Correct score1-0
Correct score odds10
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultHacken win 1.30↗BTTSNo 2.05↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.80↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginHacken by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score1-0Result status: won
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-07.5%
Expected goals2.47 – 0.92Hacken / Halmstads
Most likely scorelines
#12-010.3%
#22-19.5%
#33-08.5%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 10.3% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 8.5% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate7.5%
Model fair odds13.27
Recorded CS odds10.00
Bookmaker implied10.0%
Model-market gap-2.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-24.6%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Halmstad’s consecutive clean sheets demand respect, but Häcken’s superior attacking quality and home control should eventually unlock a stubborn defence once.
→ 1-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy