Prediction summary
Correct score1-0
Correct score odds6.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultPisa win 1.85↗BTTSNo 1.85↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.73↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginPisa by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score1-1Result status: lost
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-011.1%
Expected goals1.54 – 0.99Pisa / Empoli
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.3%
#21-011.1%
#32-09.5%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11.1% | 13.3% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.5% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate11.1%
Model fair odds9.01
Recorded CS odds6.00
Bookmaker implied16.7%
Model-market gap-5.6 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-33.4%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Pisa’s home edge, stronger market position and Under lean favour a narrow derby win, although Empoli’s excellent recent H2H record demands caution.
→ 1-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy