Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds5.80
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.10↗BTTSYes 1.75↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.80↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score3-3Result status: lost
Turkish Super Lig · Monday, 17 August 2026
Samsunspor v Goztepe Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-114.0%
Expected goals1.44 – 1.13Samsunspor / Goztepe
Most likely scorelines
#11-114.0%
#21-09.4%
#30-09.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 14.0% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.9% | 9.0% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate14.0%
Model fair odds7.13
Recorded CS odds5.80
Bookmaker implied17.2%
Model-market gap-3.2 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-18.7%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Samsunspor’s stronger continuity, encouraging AEK win and recent 3-0 home H2H edge them, but Göztepe’s rebuilt attack should threaten once.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy