Prediction summary
Correct score1-2
Correct score odds8.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultBuxton win 1.73↗BTTSYes 1.67↗O/UOver 2.5 1.70↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginBuxton by 1 goal View odds↗
Final score2-1Result status: lost
English National League North · Tuesday, 18 August 2026
Bedford Town v Buxton Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-29.8%
Expected goals1.09 – 1.78Bedford Town / Buxton
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.4%
#21-29.8%
#30-29.0%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| 2 | 3.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.8%
Model fair odds10.21
Recorded CS odds8.00
Bookmaker implied12.5%
Model-market gap-2.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-21.6%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
Bedford have shown defensive vulnerability, while Buxton arrive with the stronger profile. Both teams offer scoring threat, but visiting quality should decide a close contest.
→ 1-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy