Kick-off:
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 13.6% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Darlington arrive with renewed confidence after victory at Bedford, while Chester remain competitive historically. Momentum and home advantage narrowly favour Darlington in another tight encounter.
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy
