UEFA Champions League Qualification · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Sabah Baku Correct Score Prediction

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

1-1

Sabah Baku

Kick-off: 19:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.10BTTSYes 1.75O/UUnder 2.5 1.80FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

Final score2-1Result status: lost

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-114.0%

Expected goals1.39 – 1.20Hapoel Be'er Sheva / Sabah Baku

Most likely scorelines

#11-114.0%

#20-09.0%

#31-08.9%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.0%	7.5%	5.4%	2.2%	0.7%
1	8.9%	14.0%	7.5%	3.0%	0.9%
2	7.2%	8.7%	5.2%	2.1%	0.6%
3	3.3%	4.0%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.2%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate14.0%

Model fair odds7.15

Recorded CS odds6.50

Bookmaker implied15.4%

Model-market gap-1.4 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-9.0%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published18 Aug 2026 · 18:45 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.30View odds

Draw3.10View odds

Away2.90View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.75View odds

Both teams to score — No2.00View odds

Over 2.51.95View odds

Under 2.51.80View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

Hapoel remain formidable as designated hosts, yet injuries reduce their attacking options. Sabah’s excellent qualifying form and defensive record make a controlled draw highly plausible.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy