Prediction summary
Correct score2-2
Correct score odds9.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.50↗BTTSYes 1.40↗O/UOver 2.5 1.44↗FT goals4 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Final score1-3Result status: lost
UEFA Champions League Qualification · Wednesday, 19 August 2026
NEC Nijmegen v Bodo/Glimt Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-26.9%
Expected goals1.63 – 1.68NEC Nijmegen / Bodo/Glimt
Most likely scorelines
#11-111.4%
#21-28.4%
#32-18.1%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 4.5% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate6.9%
Model fair odds14.59
Recorded CS odds9.00
Bookmaker implied11.1%
Model-market gap-4.3 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-38.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
NEC possess home threat, but several injury doubts collide with Bodo/Glimt’s outstanding winning form. Both sides attack aggressively, making a high-scoring draw the strongest outcome.
→ 2-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy